Sometimes it feels like tape vendors are asleep at the wheel. While disk vendors aggressively market data deduplication as a tape replacement, tape suppliers appear indifferent and sanguine as they eye new tape applications in fixed content, archiving, compliance and other tier 3 applications as though these will somehow insulate them. Freeman Associates reports that tape users purchased 50% more capacity in 2006 relative to 2005 but revenue still fell, underscoring the imperative for tape vendors to develop or incorporate data deduplication technologies and push for standards. Indeed, IBM may be the sole hope of advancing such deduplication standards and further opening the opportunities for dedupe adoption. Freeman is expecting a rebound to the tape market from 2007 - 2012but vendors shouldn't get too excited about these market projections as aggressive disk players are moving much faster than tape suppliers.
The domino theory goes something like this. IBM, understanding the user benefits of seamlessly integrating disk and tape deduplication and recognizing it has more to gain than to lose by promoting a standard, uses its deep expertise in tape and its leverage as a leader in storage to spearhead the implementation of deduplication in tape (or at least the blending of de-duped disk and tape technologies in VTL's) and promote an industry-wide standard. Other tape vendors join in, recognizing an opportunity to protect both existing backup franchises and newer, emerging markets by attempting to preserve a 1/2 century-long economic advantage over disk. Backup software suppliers happily support the standard to both hedge bets and widen market opportunities. Disk vendors are placed in the uncomfortable position of having to buck the standard or support an initiative led by a competitor.
Action Item: Tape has always been a story of fragmented formats where the rising tide of standardization raised all ships. Tape is a game of survival where no one wins unless everyone works together. Sun's Jonathan Schwartz, in an effort to protect his $4.1B investment in STK should get on a plane and visit IBM's Bill Zeitler to create a data deduplication standard in integrated tape and disk solutions.
Footnotes: Well constructed scenario!
This is a great article, and a well constructed scenario. Tape vendors, the ball is in your court! David Floyer
Real Time Prediction Whether or Not Industry Standards will be Applied to Deduplication
Over 500 storage industry professionals are trading a virtual security that will pay out nicely if a standards initiative starts to standardize any aspect of deduplication. A price (i.e. probability) above 50 suggests an initiative may be announced by the end of 2007.
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