In recent years odds making, basically betting on future events, has become a popular method for forecasting future events with a higher degree of accuracy than other analytical methods. The basic method is to pose carefully designed yes or no questions and then open the betting to the largest possible population of knowledgeable people. The result is an aggregate of the expectations of that population. This has been used with consistent success for predicting stock market moves and other economic events, and it is now being applied to predictions in technology.
In the lead-up to Apple's release of its new iPhone on the AT&T cellular network in the United States, BetUS [1], a sports betting site, has run a line on a set of questions about the iPhone.
Here are the questions and the odds generated at the site:
Consumers are reported camping out waiting for an iPhone - 3/1 Initial iPhones get recalled - 30/1 iPhone sells at least 12 Million units in 2008 - 5/6 Apple’s stock jumps at least 10% in value in regards to the price on 6/30/07 - 1/2 Consumers pay at least three times the original price ($1500) on ebay - 2/1 The screen breaks/cracks like first generation nano - 150/1 There are mass reports of the battery life being less than the promised 8 hours -10/1 Someone is trampled while trying to get an iPhone - 20/1 iPhone spontaneously combusts - 150/1
How many iPhones will Apple sell in the first month?
Over 1.2 Million Units - 5/6 Under 1.2 Million Units - 5/6
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