Predictions 2010

Vellante: More Credible than Carnac?

 

Year end predictions are always so benign–I hate them. “Security will continue to be a barrier to cloud adoption; or Virtualization demand will be strong next year.” Riveting…I’ve never done year end predictions before so I’m probably not going to be very good at it. But everyone’s asking me to do some and I promised my wife I wouldn’t be wishy washy. 

First, the end of 2009 can’t happen soon enough. What a crappy year for IT. Like every other industry, IT companies laid off a zillion people, stopped paying for people’s cell phones, picked up some bargains through acquisition and have tons of cash on the balance sheet. The thing is, 2009 forced buyers to get smart about how they manage technology and much of that will carry through to 2010. In fact, the tone from many senior execs of large end users reminds me of 2003 when Nick Carr published “IT Doesn’t Matter.” CEO’s loved that article. CIO’s hated it. That was just the beginning. 

Second, please accept my apologies if you’re offended. Try to remember this is all good fun in blog land. Lighten up a little…have some fun…chances are I’m dead wrong on these anyway. 

#1 – Frank Slootman gets himself fired. I don’t know Frank but I love to hear him speak. He’s like King Leonidas in the movie 300– fearless. At this year’s EMC analyst meeting he laughed out loud at how much EMC paid for Data Domain. It was hilarious. After he mashes together Avamar, Networker and Data Domain he’s outta there. He probably has some type of 18 month deal but he’ll drive so many of the buttoned down EMCers crazy they’ll be begging him to leave. He’ll be off to Sand Hill Road to torture hopeless entrepreneurs looking for cash. I can just picture Frank looking across from the poor sap startup CEO and saying “dude, what’s your cloud strategy?” 

#2 – 3PAR gets acquired. This will really bum me out because I love 3PAR and think they have the potential to be a true tier 1 storage company without all the complexity. Which is why I think they’ll get bought–I hope I’m wrong. 

#3 – Cisco falls flat on its face in servers. I could have entitled this one “Both customers will be thrilled.” I just don’t see this happening. Networking companies are not wired to make servers. Different priorities, different mindsets…just different. 

#4 – Virtualization won’t go mission critical. Not in 2010. By December 2010 we’ll still be hearing virtualization is ‘poised’ to support mission critical apps. Give it a couple more years. 

#5 – File-based compression takes off…then disappears into hardware. This one may take a few years to fully come true but it just makes too much sense. 

#6 – The storage industry wakes up and finally figures out how much of a threat Google has become. The consumerization of IT, massive data centers that use the cheapest possible storage, dirt cheap cloud offerings with unlimited archival storage for 10 years priced at $45…all subsidized by advertising…hello!!!! 

#7 – Microsoft gains storage share. Because they understand what a threat Google is and begin to respond by putting more function into the Microsoft stack; taking share from traditional array-based software and trying to commoditize hardware– Holy cow they’re giving this stuff away! 

#8 – The storage industry wakes up and finally figures out how much of a threat Oracle has become. With our without Sun…Oracle is a force and will continue to capture more value that has been traditionally the domain of array vendors. 

#9 – What the heck happened to Hulk and Maui? I mean this isn’t a prediction but where did they go? 2010 won’t change this. Maybe it’s just too soon. 

#10 – Green makes a comeback in 2010; Not! At one point this year I thought Green would be a resurgent theme in 2010. But I think Congress will be too focused on healthcare, the economy, jobs and the deficit. Cap and trade gets back-burnered. Green takes a back seat, again– at least for a while. 

Thanks for reading…I can’t wait to see how these turn out :-0!

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  • http://twitter.com/johnmharte John Harte

    #6 – I jump right to Postini w/ Archive. Why not use google?
    If they can do Exchange stubbing so users don't have to learn an archive web interface (I'm not sure they can yet)… then you've got a hosted exchange archive.

    I can't get my storage that cheaply…we wouldn't have to purchase an archiving solution's software and hardware… if Google can then build a file server archive…. and sharepoint archive… they are right inline with Mimosa and Enterprise Vault.

    I'll pay $45 per user out of my operational budget that.

  • dvellante

    Great point about Postini John. $45/user/year for 10 years of unlimited archive storage. Can't beat that with a stick.

    Now of course a professional Records Manager would rightly poo poo all over Postini and with good reason. It's not an archive, it's a data repository.

    HOWEVER for the zillions of small-to-mid sized companies (and even many large firms) that rely on .pst files as their archive, postini is a ridiculously compelling alternative.

  • alex271

    Nice and very informative post, thank you very much. Mostly I enjoyed reading about figuring out what threat Google has becomeJ 2009 is really a crappy year for IT-workers, as I’m one of them and have been recently dismissed. I’ll use the info for my custom writing service.